Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 2.386539 2.516042 2.655302 2.817421 3.002608 3.209641 3.461710
2025-03-30 2.168443 2.337641 2.529112 2.765682 3.056016 3.409550 3.888442
2025-04-06 2.011185 2.198879 2.418415 2.700885 3.066039 3.541331 4.247082
2025-04-13 1.902005 2.101468 2.340686 2.658451 3.087178 3.678705 4.637437
2025-04-20 1.849233 2.064907 2.330280 2.694868 3.210530 3.972278 5.354448
2025-04-27 1.822624 2.056664 2.352157 2.772618 3.398710 4.400480 6.511024
2025-05-04 1.772307 2.013826 2.324081 2.776368 3.475263 4.664334 7.520289
2025-05-11 1.727715 1.975017 2.297546 2.778028 3.546390 4.934673 8.794051
2025-05-18 1.667043 1.911687 2.233310 2.718049 3.507978 4.985424 9.498319
2025-05-25 1.627195 1.873864 2.201646 2.703539 3.543111 5.193715 11.067707
2025-06-01 1.589256 1.836713 2.168559 2.683664 3.565517 5.381059 12.996954
2025-06-08 1.552068 1.798938 2.132475 2.656085 3.570157 5.529711 15.270437
2025-06-15 1.535324 1.789420 2.137688 2.696638 3.711452 6.082904 25.534403
2025-06-22 1.492751 1.742905 2.087366 2.644227 3.668669 6.137010 32.524614
2025-06-29 1.450654 1.695709 2.034171 2.583932 3.604151 6.113690 39.968022
2025-07-06 1.417067 1.659274 1.995297 2.544953 3.578400 6.202702 66.579367
2025-07-13 1.405152 1.652506 1.999633 2.577950 3.703761 6.830514 NaN
2025-07-20 1.403438 1.659810 2.025008 2.648437 3.921782 7.979819 NaN
2025-07-27 1.385108 1.642762 2.012570 2.651823 3.991269 8.620802 NaN
2025-08-03 1.367371 1.625947 1.999678 2.653323 4.056833 9.333061 NaN
2025-08-10 1.337497 1.590847 1.957286 2.598954 3.980271 9.220973 NaN
2025-08-17 1.318534 1.571048 1.938012 2.585781 4.004323 9.740558 NaN
2025-08-24 1.299375 1.550458 1.916773 2.567725 4.013980 10.205237 NaN